If a machine is correctly set up,it produces $90\%$ acceptable items. If it is incorrectly set up,it produces only $40\%$ acceptable items. Past experience shows that $80\%$ of the set ups are correctly done. If after a certain set up,the machine produces $2$ acceptable items,find the probability that the machine is correctly set up.

In an entrance test, there are multiple-choice questions. Each question has four possible answers, only one of which is correct. The probability that a student knows the answer to a question is $90\%$. If the student gets the correct answer to a question, what is the probability that they were guessing?

Suppose that the reliability of an $HIV$ test is specified as follows: Of people having $HIV$,$90\%$ of the tests detect the disease,but $10\%$ go undetected. Of people free of $HIV$,$99\%$ of the tests are judged $HIV$ negative,but $1\%$ are diagnosed as showing $HIV$ positive. From a large population of which only $0.1\%$ have $HIV$,one person is selected at random,given the $HIV$ test,and the pathologist reports him/her as $HIV$ positive. What is the probability that the person actually has $HIV$?

In a test,a student either guesses,copies,or knows the answer to a multiple-choice question with four choices. The probability that he guesses is $1/3$ and the probability that he copies the answer is $1/6$. The probability that his answer is correct,given that he copied it,is $1/8$. The probability that he knew the answer to the question,given that he answered it correctly,is

Bag $A$ contains $3$ white and $5$ black balls, while bag $B$ contains $4$ white and $3$ black balls. $A$ ball is selected at random from bag $A$ and put into bag $B$. If a ball is now selected at random from bag $B$, what is the probability that this ball is white?

$A$ bag contains $6$ balls. Two balls are drawn from it at random and both are found to be black. The probability that the bag contains at least $5$ black balls is